Best bets and Premier League preview
Aston Villa travel to London to take on Arsenal in Friday Night Football. Jake Pearson gave a preview of the game, picking his best bet and best score prediction.
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Arsenal probably won’t be too impressed with a Monday to Friday turnaround in terms of Premier League fixtures, but that should still give Mikel Arteta enough time to focus his team after their 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace on Monday night.
It’s hard to judge exactly what the mood was in the Gunners’ locker room after this game, with a last-minute goal from Alexandre Lacazette drawing Arsenal into a draw, but does splitting the points at home against Crystal Palace constitute a good result, especially after taking the lead?
If Arteta’s Arsenal have any real ambition for them, the answer to that question must be no. Regardless of how the game went, and Palace were impressive for big spells, Arsenal have to view this as a two point loss.
What that does mean though is that Arsenal remain undefeated in their last six games, and while two have been draws, it shows a streak of resistance that the Gunners have certainly lacked for a number of years.
Kick-off time: 8:00 p.m. BST, Friday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
There are signs of life in Arteta’s Arsenal, although sometimes it feels like for every step forward they take, they take two back.
Defense has been a huge advantage for Arsenal this season, with Gabriel and Ben White looking to have formed a formidable partnership, but Palace’s two goals came from individual error, the first from Gabriel and the second from White; avoidable mistakes that will make their Spanish manager pull out his perfect hair.
It’s unclear exactly which Arsenal are going to show up, but again the same can be said of their opponents Aston Villa, who are currently as a point and a place behind the Gunners in 13th position.
It’s time to get out of the Jack Grealish era, and given the signings they’ve made, and the time Dean Smith has now had to work with his new players, the excuses run dry.
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Despite all the perception that Aston Villa has struggled to move forward this quarter, they actually have a higher goals-per-game ratio on average than they did last quarter, and for all their creation of chances is lower this season, their average shots per game the tally is only slightly lower than it was last season – with an average of only one shot per game less than the leader of the Chelsea league.
Obviously, the quality of those shots and the positions they are taken from are important – with their average shots on target much lower this season – but that is certainly correctable given that they are still working in shooting positions. . There is still a lot of hope for Villa.
Find value in more niche markets
While this game is quite interesting, betting in traditional markets has little appeal as both sides are now priced roughly correctly, while the goal line looks correct as well.
In fact, it’s a tough game to predict in many ways, but digging into the stats the main thing that stood out was the glaring difference between these two teams in terms of the number of yellow cards their games have seen so far. now this season.
Arsenal games have seen the third fewest warnings this season, averaging 2.5 per game, while Aston Villa games are averaging 4.5, the division’s most common.
It doesn’t help much in gauging the line of cards for the game, but it does give us some insight into the different types of intensities the two teams play with.
It’s worth digging a little deeper into the individual matches involving these two together, as Arsenal recorded more yellow cards than their opponents in three of their nine matches, one against Tottenham in the derby of the north London, and the other two were against Chelsea and Manchester City, top teams.
Burnley, Brighton and Norwich have all seen yellow more times than Arsenal in their respective matches, sides of the same ilk as Aston Villa.
Aston Villa have averaged more than two yellows per game this season, more than Arsenal’s 1.38 per game, and given that only Watford and Southampton have committed more fouls per game this season than Villa, as well as the fact that only three teams have committed less than Arsenal, it’s surprising that bet365 is at around 7/5 ASTON VILLA SHOW MORE MAPS, with Arsenal also at 7/5.
Other companies are shorter, around 6/5, with some closer to the tie, although all have Villa the favorites in this market.
Arsenal v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Aston Villa most cards at 7/5 (bet365)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet Odds: 11/2)
Correct odds at 1610 BST (10/20/21)
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